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Stoke and Copeland Labour lessons

24/2/2017

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Op-ed: Having stayed up into the wee small hours to watch the Stoke Central and Copeland by-election results Thursday as they came in this brief report is relatively late in the day.

So first the result.

The Labour Party held Stoke Central but lost Copeland to a Tory candidate.

The world and its wife has already had their say and the knives are out for Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn but the big loser is UKip and its party leader Paul Nuttall.

This woman is watching BBC daily politics as she writes and first things first the Labour MP for Cumbria John Woodcock is sharing his twopenneth.

Mr Woodcock, like Jamie Reed who quit Copeland triggering the by-election, has been vocally against Jeremy Corbyn from day one. Obviously then this woman wonders what he and others of the same mind said on the doorstep campaigning in Copeland.

To be fair Mr Woodcock Friday did not lay the blame at Corbyn's door but he hardly put in a reassuring performance.

So a few thoughts from a Labour Party voter, supporter and party member.

BRexit, Article 50 and immigration

​
Both Stoke and Copeland voted heavily to leave the European Union in last year's referendum.

Old new Labour

​
In the last week old new Labour stalwarts, and some would say fat cats, John McTernan, Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson received a great deal of mainstream publicity and it was all about the UK staying part of the EU.

Hardly a vote winner in two BRexit supporting constituencies.

​Timing of Article 50 debate

​
The debate held so close to these two elections drip fed uncertainty about Labour's European intentions. Clive Lewis resigning his shadow cabinet position because of the Article 50 vote was picked up by the mainstream media who ran with it as negative spin.

The two MPs who resigned in Stoke and Copeland

​Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed opted to trigger by elections on the same day. That left the Labour Party defending two constituencies on same day. Both these men were supporters of old new Labour. Both often appeared to be in the wrong political party.

Appointment of election candidates

Other parties were already campaigning on the ground by the time Labour had selected its candidates. They were selected locally which means candidates suit the constituency Labour party but not necessarily the residents.

So the Labour Party needs to fine tune its selection process and speed it up.

Voters need to see a candidate when a campaign starts not just a party. They need to know who wants their votes.

Does UKip have any relevance in 2017?

Paul Nuttall was the candidate that kept on giving in Stoke. He may claim there was a dirty campaign against him but he was shown to be a liar more than once. Having failed to win various elections previously Mr Nuttall must surely be considering his position as a would be MP? He remains an MEP and party leader but for how much longer?

In Copeland the Tory vote was up and UKip vote down. It appears a straight transfer of UKip to Tory helped the Conservative candidate win.

Boundary changes

Boundary changes in 2010 brought traditional Tory voters into the Copeland constituency and the Labour majority was cut. This means those quoting old voting history in Copeland forget that is not relevant in 2017.

Further planned boundary changes will continue this trend shoring up the Tory vote. Here in Hull West and Hessle similar changes are planned.

Progressive alliances

Progressive alliances are back in the room following Thursday's by elections. Some believe it is the only way to beat the Tories in 2017 and beyond.

​Final thoughts

​
The labour party needs to:
  • ​stop airing its dirty laundry in public
  • remember loose lips sink ships
  • remove dissenters and enemies within at the top
  • focus
  • work as a team
  • put up a challenger for the position of Deputy Party leader. Tom Watson's silly dabs move at PMQs was yet more proof he is not fit for purpose
  • stop playing politics and knuckle down
  • remember people are depending on Labour to win elections
  • streamline the party and limit groups. We may allegedly be a broad church but we are in danger of losing our identity
Those are just a few ideas.

But when Copeland, an area where the local hospital is under threat, goes blue we need to toughen up and focus as a priority.

WE all need a kick up the bum and the reboot button reset.


By elections are often protest votes against the government. Thursday it seems a majority of voters in Copeland and Stoke expressed they are content with unelected PM Theresa May and her government.

We need to ask them why.

​Was it all about BRexit and Sellafield jobs in Copeland?
Copeland, result:
CON: 44.3% (+8.5)
LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)
LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)
IND: 2.6% (+2.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-1.3)

Gillian Troughton - Labour 11601
Trudy Harrison - Conservatives 13748
Fiona Mills - UKIP 2025
Rebecca Hanson - Liberal Democrats 2252
Jack Lenox - Green Party 515
Roy Ivinson - Independent 116
Michael Guest - Independent 811

Rejected votes: 40

Turnout: 51.33%

CON GAIN.
Stoke on Trent Central, result:
LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)
UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)
CON: 24.3% (+1.8)
LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)
GRN: 1.4% (-2.2)

GARETH SNELL Labour 7853
PAUL NUTTALL UKIP 5233
JACK BRERETON Conservatives 5154
DR ZULFIQAR ALI Liberal Democrats 2083
ADAM COLCLOUGH Green Party 294
MOHAMMED AKRAM Independent 56
BARBARA FIELDING Independent 137
DAVID FURNESS BNP 124
THE INCREDIBLE FLYING BRICK Monster Raving Loony Party 127
GODFREY DAVIES Christian Peoples Alliance 109

Rejected 30

Turnout: 38.16%

LABOUR HOLD.
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Tony Blair stirs pot and hands round begging bowl

17/2/2017

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Six days ahead of two by-elections that are crucial for Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn former Labour Party leader Tony Blair has put in an appearance.

Yes you guessed it right, it has not been aimed at helping the Labour Party win in either Stoke Central or Copeland.

His well publicised speech on mainstream news channels coincides with UKip Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall`s speech Friday.

Both Copeland and Stoke voted for BRexit so either Blair is banking on voters changing their minds or he is up to something entirely different.

One Labour comrade today received the following email from Blair:
The Government’s policy is now Brexit At Any Cost, as those in the driving seat have always wanted. Our task must be to expose relentlessly the cost to the country of rushing over the cliff’s edge.

As proud citizens of our country we believe that in the 21st Century we should maintain our partnership with the biggest political union and largest commercial market right on our doorstep.

WATCH me make this case in a speech for Open Britain this morning:

tonyblair_email.png SHARE ON FACEBOOK SHARE ON TWITTER The British people voted to leave Europe and the will of the people should prevail. But the people voted without knowledge of the terms of Brexit. As these terms become clear, it is their right to change their will.

Making the best of a bad job doesn't mean it is wise to put yourself in that position unless you have to. Open Britain is leading the fight against hard Brexit. All groups must now come together, find ways of concerting strategy and tactics effectively, and build them into something stronger. My new institute will create a policy platform which will go wider than the question about our future relationship with Europe.

There is an urgent need to re-position the whole debate around globalisation and how we make it work for people. In this sense, the Brexit debate is part of something much bigger. You can sign up here to receive information about the work of the institute.

As I said in my speech: now is the time to get organised. The one incontrovertible aspect of politics today is that it can change. The will of the people can change.

This is not the time for retreat, indifference of despair; but the time to rise up in defence of what we believe.

Thank you, Tony Blair

We believe that email is one of the best ways to stay in touch with our supporters, but you can unsubscribe from these messages here. If you’re not interested in continuing to receive email updates, there are other ways to stay involved. You can follow our campaign on Facebook and Twitter. We rely on small donations from our supporters to keep our movement

going: DONATE TO THE CAMPAIGN
So fat cat Tony Blair wants your hard-earned money.

You can make of the above what-you-will.

Me I see the rise of the right of Labour finally having scuppered the Labour Party time and again perhaps moving on at last.

With such enemies within who needs outside real enemies?

Blair and his regressive comrades in Progress want old new Labour and cringe at the idea of the Labour Party becoming socialist.

Way past time Blair and his ilk vamoosed
https://www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-mp-apply-fairness-in-the-labour-party-treating-senior-members-and-ordinary-members-equitably
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